The region has 14 counties and millions of registered voters. However, there are four counties where the opposition could give Ruto a strong challenge and potentially beat him. These counties are:
1. Trans Nzoia
Trans Nzoia is geographically located in the Rift Valley region but is predominantly inhabited by the Luhya community. The county also has a significant Kalenjin population.
A section of Luhya voters is currently perceived to be rallying behind Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, whose political influence has been growing beyond his traditional base.
If Sifuna manages to unite a significant number of Luhya voters behind the opposition and the community votes largely as a bloc, Ruto could face a serious challenge in Trans Nzoia.
2. Kajiado
Kajiado County is predominantly inhabited by the Maasai community, with Kikuyu and Kamba communities also having a significant presence.
A section of Kikuyu voters is perceived to be sympathetic to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, while many Kamba voters have traditionally supported Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
Since Gachagua and Kalonzo are currently in the opposition, their supporters could find themselves backing the same presidential candidate.
At the same time, Maasai voters could split between Ruto and an opposition candidate because political leaders from the community are divided.
Senator Seki Lenku Ole Kanar and Kajiado North MP Onesmus Ngogoyo are among the leaders from the county who have aligned themselves with the opposition.
If opposition leaders manage to mobilise a significant share of the Maasai vote, Ruto could face a tough contest in Kajiado.
3. Nakuru
Nakuru is one of the most cosmopolitan counties in the Rift Valley, with large Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luhya, Luo, Kisii and Kamba populations.
The Kikuyu form a significant share of the county's population, and their voting patterns could have a major influence on the presidential contest.
If a substantial number of Kikuyu voters support the opposition and their votes are combined with support from other communities, particularly the Luhya and Kamba, the opposition could potentially defeat Ruto in Nakuru.
4. Laikipia
Laikipia, like Nakuru, has a significant Kikuyu population alongside other communities. If Gachagua succeeds in consolidating a large share of the Kikuyu vote and deliver it to the opposition, Ruto could face a difficult contest in Laikipia.
However, the outcome will depend on the candidates, alliances and political dynamics that emerge before the 2027 General Election
