By installing Dr. Oburu Oginga as the interim party leader following Raila’s death in late 2025, the Wanga faction believed they had secured a "weak captain" who would allow them to maintain control while negotiating lucrative deals with the government. However, the Kibra rally on January 18 has shattered this illusion.
Winnie Odinga’s ability to command the "Kamukunji grounds" and her "Raila is irreplaceable" rhetoric has reminded the base of what the party stands for, making the current leadership look like "selfish interest" brokers in comparison.
The fear of Winnie Odinga is now palpable within the ODM secretariat. Insiders report that Wanga and her allies "saw the Baba in her"—a reference to Winnie’s mirroring of her father’s charismatic authority and populist appeal.
This has "deeply rattled" the leaders who were already enjoying the perks of the Broad-Based Government.
They realize that while they hold the official titles, Winnie holds the emotional loyalty of the Raila die-hards.
Undermining her directly is seen as a political "suicide mission" that could trigger a massive grassroots revolt, yet leaving her "uncontained" allows her to continue "pouring sand in their gari" (disrupting their plans).
President Ruto’s recent actions have added fuel to the fire. The shocking resignation and presidential bid announcement by Eliud Owalo on January 11, 2026, is being interpreted as a sign that Ruto is losing faith in the ODM faction currently in government.
By allowing Owalo—a key strategist—to launch a bid from Nyanza, Ruto is signaling that he has "alternative routes" to the region if the Wanga-Oburu team fails to deliver the base.
This has left the ODM "broad-based" leaders in a precarious position: they are being squeezed by a resurgent Winnie from below and a skeptical president from above.
The "containment meeting" reportedly arranged for this week is a high-risk gamble.
The Wanga faction must decide whether to attempt a formal disciplinary action against Winnie for holding "parallel rallies" or to try and "buy her silence" with a senior party role.
However, sources indicate that Winnie, backed by Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna, is uninterested in symbolic titles.
She is pushing for a full National Delegates Conference (NDC) to return the party to its "pro-people" roots, a move that would likely result in the current interim leadership being unceremoniously dumped.
Ultimately, the January 19, 2026 status of ODM is a party at a crossroads. The attempt to "divide the Raila family" by using Oburu as a shield has failed to stop the rise of the next generation.
As Winnie continues to mobilize the "Orange Street," the Wanga group’s hold on the party—and their influence in the Ruto government—is slipping.
Whether they succeed in "containing" her or not, the "Baba" spirit has clearly moved from the boardroom back to the trenches, and the "Gari" of the broad-based government is indeed struggling to find traction.
